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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd