Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.